{
  "_readme": "Trades are hand-edited ideas + script-evaluated status. SLATE model: up to one active idea per coin (max 5), listed in slate.coins[coin] = {trade_id | null, note}. Fields: id, coin, direction long|short, leverage (1-10 per idea; plus conviction low|medium|high and leverage_reason), entry (planned; replaced by fill price when filled, original kept in planned_entry), entry_zone {low, high} (optional), stop, targets[], opened_at, expiry (fill deadline for pending; legacy fill_by also accepted), expires (optional max hold for open trades), status pending|open|won|lost|stopped|cancelled, missed_it {max_entry, note}, reasoning. Script fills targets_hit/filled_at/closed_at/exit_price/pnl_pct/unrealized_pnl_pct/mark_price. Times are ISO-8601; no offset = US Central.",
  "current_idea_id": "T002",
  "trades": [
    {
      "id": "T001",
      "coin": "ripple",
      "direction": "long",
      "leverage": 5,
      "entry": 1.33,
      "stop": 1.28,
      "targets": [
        1.4,
        1.42
      ],
      "opened_at": "2026-10-16T00:00:00-05:00",
      "status": "stopped",
      "move_stop_to_be": true,
      "reasoning": "Seed trade: XRP long from the 1.33 area with a stop under 1.28 and targets at 1.40 / 1.42. (Opening time assumed to be the start of Oct 16, 2026 Central since no exact time was given.)",
      "source": "seed (user-specified)",
      "targets_hit": [],
      "closed_at": "2026-10-18T15:00:00Z",
      "exit_price": 1.28,
      "pnl_pct": -18.8,
      "last_checked_ms": 1792598380000
    },
    {
      "id": "T002",
      "coin": "ripple",
      "direction": "long",
      "leverage": 3,
      "entry": 1.35,
      "stop": 1.305,
      "targets": [
        1.42,
        1.47
      ],
      "opened_at": "2026-10-21T16:05:00Z",
      "fill_by": "2026-10-23T16:05:00Z",
      "status": "cancelled",
      "move_stop_to_be": true,
      "reasoning": "SEED IDEA. Don't chase XRP at $1.38 into 1.42 resistance; instead bid a pullback to $1.35 (today's breakout/consolidation zone above the 1.33 pivot). Stop $1.305 sits under RoboForex's H4 support (1.309) and the Oct 19–20 range, so the idea is invalidated if the bounce fails. T1 $1.42 = H4/7-day resistance; T2 $1.47 = bull-case projection. Risk −3.3% (−10.0% at 3x) vs. +5.2% / +8.9% (+15.6% / +26.7% at 3x). [Originally posted at 5x; changed to 3x on Oct 21.] Limit order: cancels if not filled by Oct 23 11:05 AM CT. Risks: BTC losing $82.5K, Fed Oct 27–28. Entry zone 1.345–1.355 added Oct 21 for the slate model (centered on the original 1.35 limit, ≈ the 1h EMA20).",
      "source": "seed (Grok Bot setup)",
      "last_checked_ms": 1792623600000,
      "leverage_note": "Leverage changed from 5x to 3x on Oct 21, 2026 (paper-trade leverage lowered going forward). Entry/stop/targets unchanged; P&L figures recomputed at 3x.",
      "entry_zone": {
        "low": 1.345,
        "high": 1.355
      },
      "expiry": "2026-10-23T16:05:00Z",
      "missed_it": {
        "max_entry": 1.365,
        "note": "Still worth entering up to $1.365 (≈1.1R to T1). Above that, skip — don't chase XRP into 1.42 resistance with 1h/4h RSI already overbought. Also skip if a 4h candle closes below 1.31 before the fill."
      },
      "last_checked": "2026-10-21T23:00:00Z",
      "missed_plan": {
        "type": "pullback",
        "trigger": "Retest of 1.368–1.375 holds: a 1h candle trades into the zone and closes at or above 1.368",
        "trigger_rule": {
          "tf": "1h",
          "kind": "retest_hold"
        },
        "entry_zone": {
          "low": 1.368,
          "high": 1.375
        },
        "stop": 1.348,
        "target": 1.42,
        "leverage": 3,
        "size_note": "Normal size: the stop is tighter than the original idea's.",
        "reasoning": "XRP broke out of its 1.33–1.367 range in the 14:00 UTC candle (high 1.3879) and ran to 1.3982 without coming back to the 1.345–1.355 bid. The first real retest is the old range top: the Oct 21 09:00 UTC high 1.3673 plus the 15:00–17:00 UTC hourly lows (1.372–1.3758). Stop 1.348 sits below the 1h EMA20 (1.358) and the 13:00 UTC low (1.3508); a close there means the breakout failed. Target 1.42 = the H4/7-day resistance (same as T1). R:R 1.67 from 1.375 (worst fill), 2.6 from 1.368. Breakout chase rejected: buying a 1h close above 1.42 into the 1.47 projection / 1.50 resistance with a stop back under 1.40 is only ~1.1:1.",
        "expiry": "2026-10-23T16:05:00Z",
        "written_at": "2026-10-21T18:50:00Z",
        "status": "triggered",
        "last_checked_ms": 1792623600000,
        "last_checked": "2026-10-21T23:00:00Z",
        "armed_at": "2026-10-21T19:05:00Z",
        "triggered_at": "2026-10-21T23:00:00Z",
        "linked_id": "T002b"
      },
      "closed_at": "2026-10-21T23:00:00Z",
      "cancel_reason": "superseded by missed-it plan"
    },
    {
      "id": "T003",
      "coin": "stellar",
      "direction": "short",
      "leverage": 2,
      "entry": 0.1905,
      "entry_zone": {
        "low": 0.1895,
        "high": 0.1915
      },
      "stop": 0.1955,
      "targets": [
        0.183,
        0.1775
      ],
      "opened_at": "2026-10-21T17:00:00Z",
      "expiry": "2026-10-23T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "pending",
      "move_stop_to_be": true,
      "missed_it": {
        "max_entry": 0.1885,
        "note": "Only short INTO the zone. If XLM rolls over below $0.1885 without tagging it, skip (reward to T1 too small). Skip entirely if it reclaims and holds above the daily EMA50 (~$0.1935)."
      },
      "reasoning": "SEED SLATE IDEA (short, fade into resistance). Daily trend is down (price below the daily EMA20 0.1909 / EMA50 0.1933 / EMA200 0.1908; daily RSI 44), while the 1h/4h bounce is stretched (1h StochRSI ~100, 1h RSI 69). The 0.1895–0.1915 zone stacks the daily EMA20/EMA200 with prior support-turned-resistance near 0.19. Stop 0.1955 sits above the daily EMA50. T1 0.1830 ≈ the 1h EMA20/prior breakout; T2 0.1775 ≈ the Oct 17–19 support. From 0.1905: risk +2.6% (−5.2% at 2x) vs. −3.9% / −6.8% (+7.8% / +13.6% at 2x).",
      "source": "seed slate (Grok Bot)",
      "last_checked_ms": 1792657200000,
      "mark_price": 0.17803,
      "last_checked": "2026-10-22T08:20:00Z",
      "missed_plan": {
        "type": "none",
        "trigger": null,
        "entry_zone": null,
        "stop": null,
        "target": null,
        "leverage": null,
        "size_note": null,
        "reasoning": "No good chase; wait for a new setup. If XLM rolls over without rallying into 0.1895–0.1915, a breakdown short (1h close below the Oct 21 0.1808 base / 4h EMA20 0.1809, stop above the 0.1842 Oct 21 08:00 UTC high) runs straight into the 0.177–0.1775 support: about 0.6:1 from 0.18. A flip long above the 0.1955 stop has the 0.203 resistance only ~3% higher with a stop back under 0.1915 (about 1.1:1 from 0.197). Neither clears 1.5:1, so the fade either fills in its zone or Lumi waits.",
        "written_at": "2026-10-21T18:50:00Z",
        "status": "n/a"
      },
      "conviction": "low",
      "leverage_reason": "Low conviction: only the 1d read agrees (1d Strong Sell vs 4h Buy, 1h Neutral; overall Neutral), the BTC backdrop is Buy (a headwind for shorts) and Stellar's Meridian (Oct 28) and Protocol 30 vote (Nov 3) are upside event risks. Low band = 1-2x; stop 0.1955 is 3.2% from the worst fill 0.1895, so 2x risks about 6% of margin (cap 25% would allow ~7x).",
      "leverage_note": "Re-levered 3x -> 2x on Oct 22, 2026 under the per-idea conviction rule (still pending, never filled)."
    },
    {
      "id": "T004",
      "coin": "zebec-network",
      "direction": "long",
      "leverage": 3,
      "entry": 0.00234,
      "entry_zone": {
        "low": 0.0023,
        "high": 0.00234
      },
      "stop": 0.00219,
      "targets": [
        0.00258,
        0.0027
      ],
      "opened_at": "2026-10-21T17:00:00Z",
      "expiry": "2026-10-23T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "move_stop_to_be": true,
      "missed_it": {
        "max_entry": 0.00238,
        "note": "Worth entering up to $0.00238; above that skip — chasing a +13% day in a thin small-cap. Skip if price loses $0.00222 (4h EMA20/50) before filling."
      },
      "reasoning": "SEED SLATE IDEA (3x long, buy the pullback). ZBCN is the only coin with an uptrend on all three timeframes (price > EMA20 > EMA50 on 1h/4h/1d, above the daily EMA200 0.00227), but 1h/4h RSI is >70 after today's +13% breakout, so wait for a retest of the 0.0023 breakout area / 1h EMA20 (0.00233). Stop 0.00219 below the 4h EMA20/50 (~0.00222) and the daily EMA200. T1 0.00258 = early-Oct resistance; T2 0.00270 = bull projection. From 0.00232: risk −5.6% (−16.8% at 3x) vs. +11.2% / +16.4% (+33.6% / +49.1% at 3x). Small cap: wide swings, size down.",
      "source": "seed slate (Grok Bot)",
      "last_checked_ms": 1792657200000,
      "mark_price": 0.002221,
      "last_checked": "2026-10-22T08:20:00Z",
      "missed_plan": {
        "type": "pullback",
        "trigger": "Range floor holds: a 1h candle dips into 0.002385–0.00241 and closes at or above 0.002385",
        "trigger_rule": {
          "tf": "1h",
          "kind": "retest_hold"
        },
        "entry_zone": {
          "low": 0.002385,
          "high": 0.00241
        },
        "stop": 0.00231,
        "target": 0.00258,
        "leverage": 2,
        "size_note": "Half size at 2x: a chase entry in a thin small-cap; the stop is only ~3–4% away and can get wicked.",
        "reasoning": "ZBCN tagged 0.002482 (Oct 21 11:00 UTC) and has ranged since: the 12:00–18:00 UTC hourly lows sit at 0.002377–0.002403, so the range floor is ~0.00239. It never came back to the 0.0023–0.00234 bid. Missed-it move: buy a held retest of that floor. Stop 0.00231 is below the 1h EMA20 (0.002345) and the 07:00 UTC low (0.002327); losing it means the range broke down. Target 0.00258 = the resistance level (same as T1). R:R 1.7 from 0.00241 (worst fill), 2.6 from 0.002385. Breakout chase rejected: a 1h close above 0.0025 hits 0.00258 resistance within ~3%, about 0.7:1 with a stop back inside the range. Risk: the 1h MACD just crossed bearish on low volume (0.57x), so this can fail.",
        "expiry": "2026-10-23T17:00:00Z",
        "written_at": "2026-10-21T18:50:00Z",
        "status": "void",
        "last_checked_ms": 1792612800000,
        "last_checked": "2026-10-21T20:00:00Z",
        "ended_at": "2026-10-21T19:10:00Z",
        "void_reason": "main idea filled"
      },
      "planned_entry": 0.00232,
      "filled_at": "2026-10-21T19:10:00Z",
      "targets_hit": [],
      "unrealized_pnl_pct": -15.26,
      "conviction": "medium",
      "leverage_reason": "Recorded at 3x under the fixed-3x rule (Oct 21); seen as medium conviction: uptrend on all three timeframes, but a thin small cap after a +13% day."
    },
    {
      "id": "T005",
      "coin": "axelar",
      "direction": "long",
      "leverage": 3,
      "entry": 0.053,
      "entry_zone": {
        "low": 0.0518,
        "high": 0.053
      },
      "stop": 0.0505,
      "targets": [
        0.0583,
        0.062
      ],
      "opened_at": "2026-10-21T20:31:02Z",
      "expiry": "2026-11-07T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "stopped",
      "timeframe": "swing",
      "timeframe_note": "Swing / range trade: multi-day hold inside the 0.0475-0.0647 channel, about 2.5 weeks to fill",
      "missed_it": {
        "max_entry": 0.056,
        "note": "If AXL gets back to 0.0560 (mid-channel) before dipping into 0.0518-0.0530, the floor buy is missed. Don't chase mid-range: skip it and wait for the next floor test or a ceiling rejection."
      },
      "missed_plan": {
        "type": "none",
        "reasoning": "no good chase; wait for a new setup: above 0.0560 price is mid-channel. A retest entry at 0.0553-0.0560 with a stop under the 0.0516 shelf low (0.0514) has 0.0046 of risk vs 0.0060 to the 0.0620 ceiling target = 1.3R from the worst fill, under the 1.5 minimum. The next range trade is a short on a rejection of 0.0615-0.0645 or a new buy at the 0.0518-0.0530 shelf.",
        "status": "n/a"
      },
      "reasoning": "SWING / RANGE trade (multi-day). AXL has been range-trading in a channel since Sep 22 (Coinbase daily + 4H candles): outer floor 0.0475-0.0505 (6 swing lows: 0.0488 Sep 24, 0.0501 Sep 29, 0.0493 Oct 1, 0.0505 Oct 2, 0.0490 Oct 7, 0.0475 Oct 8; only three 4H closes under 0.050, reclaimed within a day), a rising inner shelf at 0.0516-0.0535 (6 lows since Oct 13: 0.0533, 0.0516, 0.0535, 0.0532, 0.0528, 0.0525) and a ceiling at 0.0600-0.0647 (4 rejections: 0.0600 Sep 27, 0.0629 Oct 12, 0.0647 Oct 14, 0.0642 Oct 18; highest 4H close 0.0621, no daily close above 0.0603). Floor-to-ceiling legs have run +21-32% and ceiling-to-floor drops -15-20%, usually in 1-4 days. Price (~0.0545) sits just above the shelf, below mid-channel (~0.056), so this is a pending limit at the shelf, not a chase. Stop 0.0505 is under the 0.0516 shelf low: a break there means the October floor failed and price likely rotates to 0.0475-0.050 (a stop under 0.0475 from a 0.053 fill would risk about 35% of margin at 3x for a sub-1.5 R:R to T2). T1 0.0583 sits under the 0.0581-0.0591 lower-high cluster; T2 0.0620 sits under the 0.0625-0.0647 rejection wicks. R:R from the worst fill (0.0530): 2.1 to T1, 3.6 to T2. Signals: 1h Buy, 1d Buy (above EMA50/EMA200, daily StochRSI oversold), 4h Sell (below EMA20/50), so wait for the floor. Context: CoinDCX (Oct 15) reports the Oct 14 spike came with no Axelar announcement, on volume equal to 78% of market cap, and warns of sharp retracements once volume normalizes. That fits wick-and-fade range behaviour more than a breakout. Mirror trade: after T2, a rejection at 0.0615-0.0645 is the short back toward the shelf.",
      "source": "analysis run (AXL range review)",
      "last_checked_ms": 1792639200000,
      "last_checked": "2026-10-22T03:20:00Z",
      "conviction": "medium",
      "leverage_reason": "Medium conviction: a well-defined range floor (6 shelf lows 0.0516-0.0535) and 1h/1d Buy with a supportive BTC backdrop, but 4h Sell, a thin small cap and an unexplained Oct 14 spike. Medium band = 3-5x, kept at the low end for volatility over a multi-day swing; stop 0.0505 is 4.7% from the worst fill 0.0530, so 3x risks about 14% of margin (cap 25% would allow ~5x).",
      "planned_entry": 0.0524,
      "filled_at": "2026-10-22T01:35:00Z",
      "targets_hit": [],
      "exit_price": 0.0505,
      "pnl_pct": -14.15,
      "closed_at": "2026-10-22T03:15:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "T006",
      "coin": "xdce-crowd-sale",
      "direction": "long",
      "leverage": 1,
      "market": "spot",
      "entry": 0.0352,
      "entry_zone": {
        "low": 0.0347,
        "high": 0.0352
      },
      "stop": 0.033,
      "targets": [
        0.0383,
        0.044
      ],
      "opened_at": "2026-10-21T21:36:39Z",
      "expiry": "2026-11-04T23:00:00Z",
      "expires": "2026-12-21T23:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "timeframe": "position",
      "timeframe_note": "Spot position idea (1x, no leverage, long only): up to 2 weeks to fill, then held for weeks to about 2 months (time stop Dec 21)",
      "missed_it": {
        "max_entry": 0.0356,
        "note": "Above 0.0356 price is up against the 0.0355-0.0360 ceiling with 1h/4h RSI stretched, and buying there leaves about 7% to T1 against a stop under 0.0330. Don't chase: wait for the 0.0347-0.0352 retest, or for the confirmed breakout plan below."
      },
      "missed_plan": {
        "type": "breakout",
        "trigger": "1h close above 0.0365 (clears the 0.0355-0.0360 ceiling and the Sep 28 high 0.03643)",
        "trigger_rule": {
          "tf": "1h",
          "kind": "close_above",
          "level": 0.0365
        },
        "entry_zone": {
          "low": 0.0362,
          "high": 0.0366
        },
        "stop": 0.0347,
        "target": 0.044,
        "leverage": 1,
        "size_note": "spot, half the normal size: a breakout entry after an 11%+ day",
        "reasoning": "If XDC accepts above the October ceiling (0.0355-0.0360) and the Sep 28 high (0.03643), the old ceiling should act as support. Buy 0.0362-0.0366 after a 1h close above 0.0365, with the stop at 0.0347, back inside the old range and under the 0.0347-0.0352 shelf. The target is 0.0440, under the Jan 22-23 highs (0.0443-0.0444); 0.0384 (Sep 29 high) and 0.0395-0.0400 (Jan/Feb highs) are resistance along the way. R:R from the worst fill (0.0366): 0.0074 / 0.0019 = 3.9.",
        "expiry": "2026-11-04T23:00:00Z",
        "status": "void",
        "last_checked_ms": 1792623600000,
        "last_checked": "2026-10-21T23:00:00Z",
        "ended_at": "2026-10-21T21:55:00Z",
        "void_reason": "main idea filled"
      },
      "reasoning": "SPOT POSITION idea (1x, long only; a long-term spot holding idea, and the main perp venues used here (Bitunix, Binance, OKX, Kraken Futures, Coinbase) list no XDC perpetual). Kraken candles: today's +11% move broke the Oct 15-20 lower highs (0.0352 to 0.0329) and is testing the 0.0355-0.0360 ceiling (Oct 9/10/12 highs 0.03587/0.03574/0.03569, today 0.03597), but it has not closed a 4H or daily candle above 0.0360. Volume is higher (Kraken ~1.6x its 10-day average, CoinGecko all-exchange ~$25.6M vs ~$8-18M/day) on the SBI/Shinhan yen-stablecoin MOU and this week's MoneyGram validator news. Price is stretched (4H above the upper Bollinger band, 1h RSI 80), so this is a pending buy on a retest of 0.0347-0.0352: the broken lower-high line (Oct 15 high 0.0352, Oct 16 0.0347) and today's 1-3 PM CT base (1h lows 0.0347-0.0350). Stop 0.0330 sits under today's 7 AM CT 4H low (0.0339) and the Oct 13 low (0.03318), near the daily EMA20 (0.0334). A close there means the breakout failed and the October floor (0.0318-0.0321) is in play. T1 0.0383 is under the Sep 29 high (0.0384, the 90-day high); T2 0.0440 is under the Jan 22-23 highs. R:R from the worst fill (0.0352): 1.4 to T1, 4.0 to T2, about 2.7 blended (equal halves; the stop moves to breakeven after T1). P&L is at 1x: T1 +8.8%, T2 +25%, stop -6.3% from 0.0352. The news is mostly MOUs and pilots with no disclosed numbers, so the idea rests on the levels, not on the headlines.",
      "source": "analysis run (XDC first review, Oct 21 breakout check)",
      "last_checked_ms": 1792657200000,
      "last_checked": "2026-10-22T08:20:00Z",
      "planned_entry": 0.03495,
      "filled_at": "2026-10-21T21:55:00Z",
      "targets_hit": [],
      "mark_price": 0.03468,
      "unrealized_pnl_pct": -1.48,
      "conviction": "medium",
      "leverage_reason": "Spot (1x) by rule: XDC ideas are spot only; a weeks-to-months position hold, not leveraged."
    },
    {
      "id": "T002b",
      "coin": "ripple",
      "direction": "long",
      "leverage": 3,
      "entry": 1.3706,
      "entry_zone": {
        "low": 1.368,
        "high": 1.375
      },
      "stop": 1.348,
      "targets": [
        1.42
      ],
      "opened_at": "2026-10-21T23:00:00Z",
      "expiry": "2026-10-23T16:05:00Z",
      "status": "stopped",
      "move_stop_to_be": false,
      "parent_id": "T002",
      "plan_type": "pullback",
      "trigger": "Retest of 1.368–1.375 holds: a 1h candle trades into the zone and closes at or above 1.368",
      "size_note": "Normal size: the stop is tighter than the original idea's.",
      "reasoning": "MISSED-IT PLAN of T002 (pullback), triggered: Retest of 1.368–1.375 holds: a 1h candle trades into the zone and closes at or above 1.368. XRP broke out of its 1.33–1.367 range in the 14:00 UTC candle (high 1.3879) and ran to 1.3982 without coming back to the 1.345–1.355 bid. The first real retest is the old range top: the Oct 21 09:00 UTC high 1.3673 plus the 15:00–17:00 UTC hourly lows (1.372–1.3758). Stop 1.348 sits below the 1h EMA20 (1.358) and the 13:00 UTC low (1.3508); a close there means the breakout failed. Target 1.42 = the H4/7-day resistance (same as T1). R:R 1.67 from 1.375 (worst fill), 2.6 from 1.368. Breakout chase rejected: buying a 1h close above 1.42 into the 1.47 projection / 1.50 resistance with a stop back under 1.40 is only ~1.1:1.",
      "source": "missed_plan of T002 (auto-activated by track_trades.py)",
      "last_checked_ms": 1792633500000,
      "last_checked": "2026-10-22T01:45:00Z",
      "planned_entry": 1.3715,
      "filled_at": "2026-10-21T23:00:00Z",
      "targets_hit": [],
      "conviction": "medium",
      "leverage_reason": "Inherited 3x from T002 (fixed-3x rule at the time); a pullback retest of the breakout zone with a tight stop.",
      "exit_price": 1.348,
      "pnl_pct": -4.95,
      "closed_at": "2026-10-22T01:40:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "T007",
      "coin": "bitcoin",
      "direction": "long",
      "leverage": 3,
      "conviction": "medium",
      "leverage_reason": "4h Strong Buy / 1d Buy but 1h Sell; clear 81.1K-81.6K base under the zone; Fed Oct 28 inside the window; stop 1.8% from worst fill -> 5.5% of margin at 3x",
      "entry": 82300.0,
      "entry_zone": {
        "low": 81800,
        "high": 82300
      },
      "stop": 80800,
      "targets": [
        84500,
        86000
      ],
      "opened_at": "2026-10-22T03:51:52Z",
      "expiry": "2026-10-25T23:00:00-05:00",
      "expires": "2026-10-28T12:00:00-05:00",
      "status": "open",
      "move_stop_to_be": true,
      "timeframe": "swing",
      "timeframe_note": "Swing (days): bid a retest of the Oct 19-20 base; fills by Oct 25, closes at market before the Oct 28 Fed decision if still open",
      "missed_it": {
        "max_entry": 82600,
        "note": "Above 82,600 the reward to T1 84,500 drops under ~1.2R against the 80,800 stop, so don't chase the bounce. Skip the idea if BTC has a 4h close under 81,000 before filling (the Oct 20 base is gone)."
      },
      "missed_plan": {
        "type": "breakout",
        "trigger": "1h close above 85,000 (clears the Oct 21 high 84,850)",
        "trigger_rule": {
          "tf": "1h",
          "kind": "close_above",
          "level": 85000
        },
        "entry_zone": {
          "low": 85000,
          "high": 85300
        },
        "stop": 84000,
        "target": 87400,
        "leverage": 3,
        "size_note": "normal size; the stop is tighter in % than the main idea's",
        "reasoning": "If BTC never dips to 82.3K and instead clears the Oct 21 high (84,850), buy 85,000-85,300 after a 1h close above 85,000. Stop 84,000 sits under the Oct 21 late-session hourly lows (83,983-84,008); a close back there means the breakout failed. Target 87,400 is just under the 90-day high (~87,395) and the 87,450 resistance. R:R from the worst fill 85,300: 2,100 / 1,300 = 1.6.",
        "expiry": "2026-10-25T23:00:00-05:00",
        "status": "invalidated",
        "last_checked_ms": 1792645200000,
        "last_checked": "2026-10-22T05:00:00Z",
        "armed_at": "2026-10-22T04:05:00Z",
        "ended_at": "2026-10-22T05:00:00Z"
      },
      "reasoning": "SWING LONG (pullback buy). BTC topped at 84,850 on Oct 21 and pulled back to ~82.9K, right onto the daily EMA20 (~82.7K) and the 82.5K level analysts flagged as the line for the bounce. The bid sits lower, at 81.8K-82.3K, over the Oct 19-20 base (lows 81,634 / 81,081, closes ~81.8K-82.9K) so a fill comes from a real retest, not mid-air. Stop 80,800 is under the Oct 20 low; below that the 80K-80.6K Oct 15-18 lows are the last support. T1 84,500 sits under the Oct 21 high/84.85K resistance; T2 86,000 is the next resistance band. From the 82,300 worst fill: risk -1.8% (-5.5% at 3x) vs +2.7% / +4.5% (+8.0% / +13.6% at 3x) = 1.5R / 2.5R. Support: spot BTC ETFs +$289.8M on Oct 21 (second straight inflow day), funding only ~0.003%, 4h Strong Buy / 1d Buy. Against: 1h Sell, Fear & Greed 68 (Greed) and the Oct 28 FOMC, so the trade closes at market before the decision if still open. Indicators are context, not proof.",
      "source": "analysis run (late night Oct 21)",
      "last_checked_ms": 1792657200000,
      "last_checked": "2026-10-22T08:20:00Z",
      "mark_price": 81994.5,
      "planned_entry": 82050,
      "filled_at": "2026-10-22T07:05:00Z",
      "targets_hit": [],
      "unrealized_pnl_pct": -1.11
    }
  ],
  "stats": {
    "total": 8,
    "open": 3,
    "pending": 1,
    "closed": 3,
    "won": 0,
    "lost_or_stopped": 3,
    "win_rate_pct": 0.0,
    "cumulative_pnl_pct": -37.9,
    "note": "Cumulative P&L is the simple sum of per-trade % returns at each trade's leverage (equal size per trade).",
    "equity_curve": [
      {
        "t": "2026-10-18T15:00:00Z",
        "trade_id": "T001",
        "cum_pnl_pct": -18.8
      },
      {
        "t": "2026-10-22T01:40:00Z",
        "trade_id": "T002b",
        "cum_pnl_pct": -23.75
      },
      {
        "t": "2026-10-22T03:15:00Z",
        "trade_id": "T005",
        "cum_pnl_pct": -37.9
      }
    ],
    "slate_warnings": []
  },
  "evaluated_utc": "2026-10-21T17:08:18Z",
  "slate": {
    "as_of": "2026-10-22T03:51:52Z",
    "rules": "Max one active (pending/open) idea per coin, max 6 at once; long or short; 'no setup' is allowed. Leverage is per idea, 1x-10x by conviction (low 1-2x, medium 3-5x, high 6-10x), capped so the loss at the stop from the worst fill is <= ~25% of margin; XDC is spot 1x.",
    "coins": {
      "ripple": {
        "trade_id": null,
        "note": "No setup (late night Oct 21). T002b was stopped at 1.348. XRP is back on the 1.33-1.345 pivot with the daily EMA cluster (1.369-1.375) overhead: a long from 1.33 with a stop under 1.29 is ~1:1 to 1.37, and a short into 1.33 support has no room. Wait for a daily close back above 1.375 or a flush to 1.28-1.29 that holds."
      },
      "stellar": {
        "trade_id": "T003"
      },
      "zebec-network": {
        "trade_id": "T004"
      },
      "hedera-hashgraph": {
        "trade_id": null,
        "note": "No setup (late night Oct 21). Testing the 0.082 floor (low 0.08197) under falling daily EMAs (~0.0869-0.0878): a short has little room, a long fights the trend. Wait for a daily close above ~0.0887 or a reclaim after a flush below 0.080."
      },
      "axelar": {
        "trade_id": null,
        "note": "No setup (late night Oct 21). T005 was stopped at 0.0505 when the 0.0516-0.0535 shelf broke. Price ~0.0508 is in the outer 0.0475-0.0505 floor with 1h Strong Sell momentum; wait for a 4h close back above 0.0516 or a flush into 0.0475-0.049 that reverses. A daily close under 0.0475 ends the range thesis."
      },
      "ethereum": {
        "trade_id": null,
        "note": "No setup (late night Oct 21). ~2,441 at the 2,432-2,435 support, 1d Sell; a long has the 2,480-2,520 ceiling close and a short into 2,336-2,370 is ~3% with the BTC 4h still Buy."
      },
      "solana": {
        "trade_id": null,
        "note": "No setup (late night Oct 21). Slipped under 105.5 (low 104.93); a breakdown short to 100.5 from a 105.5-106.5 retest with a stop above 108.4 is only ~1.4-1.7:1 against a BTC 4h Buy."
      },
      "dogecoin": {
        "trade_id": null,
        "note": "No setup (late night Oct 21). Daily Strong Sell, but only ~5% above the 0.076-0.077 floor: no room for a short, and a long fights the trend."
      },
      "cardano": {
        "trade_id": null,
        "note": "No setup (late night Oct 21). Lost 0.2219 support (low 0.2193); next 0.2144/0.2108. Wait for a reclaim of 0.2267 or a test of 0.211-0.2145."
      },
      "chainlink": {
        "trade_id": null,
        "note": "No setup (late night Oct 21). Rejected at 12.80, now on 12.17-12.26 support mid-range; wait for a hold there with a 4h turn, or a breakout close above 12.80."
      },
      "sui": {
        "trade_id": null,
        "note": "No setup (late night Oct 21). Testing 1.00 (low 0.9999) mid-range between 0.975 and 1.056; no edge until one breaks."
      },
      "bitcoin": {
        "trade_id": "T007"
      },
      "xdce-crowd-sale": {
        "trade_id": "T006"
      }
    }
  },
  "tracked_utc": "2026-10-22T08:21:50.552000Z"
}