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모의 매매 T008: Hedera (HBAR) 숏
2026년 10월 22일 12:40 CDT 게시
차트로 보는 셋업
진입 구간 0.0815–0.0825손절 0.084T1 0.0778T2 0.0755점선: 게시 / 종료 · 10월 21일 1시 – 10월 22일 12시 CT
손절까지 위험 3.07% (2x 기준 증거금의 6.1%)T1까지 수익 4.54% (2x 기준 9.1%)
무슨 일이 있었나
- 2026년 10월 22일 12:40 CDT 아이디어 게시 · 숏 · 2x; 진입 구간 0.0815–0.0825
- 2026년 10월 25일 12:00 CDT 미체결 시 만료
Lumi의 근거
더 보기: 이 아이디어의 이유, 레버리지 및 "놓쳤다면?" 플랜
2x인 이유: 1d/4h/1h all Sell under falling EMAs, but the 1h is oversold (RSI ~28) at a fresh 30-day low and the bid needs a bounce first; stop 3.1% from worst fill -> 6% of margin at 2x
SHORT (sell the retest). HBAR broke the 0.0814-0.082 floor that held Oct 16-21 and fell to a fresh 30-day low (~0.0793, -19% over 30 days) in Thursday's broad risk-off move. All three timeframes are Sell with price under the 1h EMA50 (~0.0827), 4h EMA20 (~0.0828) and daily EMAs (~0.087). Rather than short into an oversold low, the order sits in the broken floor at 0.0815-0.0825, where old support usually becomes resistance. Stop 0.0840 is above the 1h/4h EMA cluster; a move back there means the breakdown failed. T1 0.0778 is just under today's low area, T2 0.0755 is the bear-case extension. From the 0.0815 worst fill: risk 3.1% vs 4.5% to T1 (1.5R) and 7.4% to T2 (2.4R). Hedera's testnet Network MCP launch is development news, not a near-term price driver.
"놓쳤다면?" 플랜
Below 0.0805 the room to T1 shrinks under 1R, so don't chase it lower. Skip the idea if HBAR gets a 4h close back above 0.0845 (the broken floor is reclaimed). ("놓쳤다면?" 한도 0.0805)
no good chase; wait for a new setup: HBAR is already at its 30-day low (~0.0793) with the 1h oversold, so a short from here has its stop 4-6% away above 0.0827-0.084 and only ~2-4% of room before the projected 0.0765-0.0778 area: R:R under 1.5.