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ペーパートレード T005：Axelar (AXL) ロング
2026年10月21日 15:31 CDT公開
チャートで見るセットアップ
エントリーゾーン 0.0518–0.053損切り 0.0505T1 0.0583T2 0.062約定 0.053決済 0.0505点線：公開 / 終了 · 10月20日 4時 – 10月22日 12時 CT
損切りまでのリスク 4.72%（3xで証拠金の14.2%）T1までのリワード 10.00%（3xで30.0%）
経緯
- 2026年10月21日 15:31 CDT アイデア公開 · ロング · 3x; エントリーゾーン 0.0518–0.053
- 2026年10月21日 20:35 CDT 約定済み · 0.053で（予定 0.0524）
- 2026年10月21日 22:15 CDT 損切り · 決済 0.0505、3xで-14.15%
Lumiの根拠
詳しく：このアイデアの理由、レバレッジと「乗り遅れたら？」プラン
3xの理由： Medium conviction: a well-defined range floor (6 shelf lows 0.0516-0.0535) and 1h/1d Buy with a supportive BTC backdrop, but 4h Sell, a thin small cap and an unexplained Oct 14 spike. Medium band = 3-5x, kept at the low end for volatility over a multi-day swing; stop 0.0505 is 4.7% from the worst fill 0.0530, so 3x risks about 14% of margin (cap 25% would allow ~5x).
SWING / RANGE trade (multi-day). AXL has been range-trading in a channel since Sep 22 (Coinbase daily + 4H candles): outer floor 0.0475-0.0505 (6 swing lows: 0.0488 Sep 24, 0.0501 Sep 29, 0.0493 Oct 1, 0.0505 Oct 2, 0.0490 Oct 7, 0.0475 Oct 8; only three 4H closes under 0.050, reclaimed within a day), a rising inner shelf at 0.0516-0.0535 (6 lows since Oct 13: 0.0533, 0.0516, 0.0535, 0.0532, 0.0528, 0.0525) and a ceiling at 0.0600-0.0647 (4 rejections: 0.0600 Sep 27, 0.0629 Oct 12, 0.0647 Oct 14, 0.0642 Oct 18; highest 4H close 0.0621, no daily close above 0.0603). Floor-to-ceiling legs have run +21-32% and ceiling-to-floor drops -15-20%, usually in 1-4 days. Price (~0.0545) sits just above the shelf, below mid-channel (~0.056), so this is a pending limit at the shelf, not a chase. Stop 0.0505 is under the 0.0516 shelf low: a break there means the October floor failed and price likely rotates to 0.0475-0.050 (a stop under 0.0475 from a 0.053 fill would risk about 35% of margin at 3x for a sub-1.5 R:R to T2). T1 0.0583 sits under the 0.0581-0.0591 lower-high cluster; T2 0.0620 sits under the 0.0625-0.0647 rejection wicks. R:R from the worst fill (0.0530): 2.1 to T1, 3.6 to T2. Signals: 1h Buy, 1d Buy (above EMA50/EMA200, daily StochRSI oversold), 4h Sell (below EMA20/50), so wait for the floor. Context: CoinDCX (Oct 15) reports the Oct 14 spike came with no Axelar announcement, on volume equal to 78% of market cap, and warns of sharp retracements once volume normalizes. That fits wick-and-fade range behaviour more than a breakout. Mirror trade: after T2, a rejection at 0.0615-0.0645 is the short back toward the shelf.
「乗り遅れたら？」プラン
If AXL gets back to 0.0560 (mid-channel) before dipping into 0.0518-0.0530, the floor buy is missed. Don't chase mid-range: skip it and wait for the next floor test or a ceiling rejection.（「乗り遅れたら？」上限 0.056）
no good chase; wait for a new setup: above 0.0560 price is mid-channel. A retest entry at 0.0553-0.0560 with a stop under the 0.0516 shelf low (0.0514) has 0.0046 of risk vs 0.0060 to the 0.0620 ceiling target = 1.3R from the worst fill, under the 1.5 minimum. The next range trade is a short on a rejection of 0.0615-0.0645 or a new buy at the 0.0518-0.0530 shelf.