모의 매매 T006: XDC Network (XDC) 롱

현물 (1x)인 이유: Spot (1x) by rule: XDC ideas are spot only; a weeks-to-months position hold, not leveraged.

SPOT POSITION idea (1x, long only; a long-term spot holding idea, and the main perp venues used here (Bitunix, Binance, OKX, Kraken Futures, Coinbase) list no XDC perpetual). Kraken candles: today's +11% move broke the Oct 15-20 lower highs (0.0352 to 0.0329) and is testing the 0.0355-0.0360 ceiling (Oct 9/10/12 highs 0.03587/0.03574/0.03569, today 0.03597), but it has not closed a 4H or daily candle above 0.0360. Volume is higher (Kraken ~1.6x its 10-day average, CoinGecko all-exchange ~$25.6M vs ~$8-18M/day) on the SBI/Shinhan yen-stablecoin MOU and this week's MoneyGram validator news. Price is stretched (4H above the upper Bollinger band, 1h RSI 80), so this is a pending buy on a retest of 0.0347-0.0352: the broken lower-high line (Oct 15 high 0.0352, Oct 16 0.0347) and today's 1-3 PM CT base (1h lows 0.0347-0.0350). Stop 0.0330 sits under today's 7 AM CT 4H low (0.0339) and the Oct 13 low (0.03318), near the daily EMA20 (0.0334). A close there means the breakout failed and the October floor (0.0318-0.0321) is in play. T1 0.0383 is under the Sep 29 high (0.0384, the 90-day high); T2 0.0440 is under the Jan 22-23 highs. R:R from the worst fill (0.0352): 1.4 to T1, 4.0 to T2, about 2.7 blended (equal halves; the stop moves to breakeven after T1). P&L is at 1x: T1 +8.8%, T2 +25%, stop -6.3% from 0.0352. The news is mostly MOUs and pilots with no disclosed numbers, so the idea rests on the levels, not on the headlines.

"놓쳤다면?" 플랜

Above 0.0356 price is up against the 0.0355-0.0360 ceiling with 1h/4h RSI stretched, and buying there leaves about 7% to T1 against a stop under 0.0330. Don't chase: wait for the 0.0347-0.0352 retest, or for the confirmed breakout plan below. ("놓쳤다면?" 한도 0.0356)

플랜 B (상방 돌파): 1h close above 0.0365 (clears the 0.0355-0.0360 ceiling and the Sep 28 high 0.03643). 구간 0.0362–0.0366, 손절 0.0347, 목표가 0.044. 상태: 무효.

If XDC accepts above the October ceiling (0.0355-0.0360) and the Sep 28 high (0.03643), the old ceiling should act as support. Buy 0.0362-0.0366 after a 1h close above 0.0365, with the stop at 0.0347, back inside the old range and under the 0.0347-0.0352 shelf. The target is 0.0440, under the Jan 22-23 highs (0.0443-0.0444); 0.0384 (Sep 29 high) and 0.0395-0.0400 (Jan/Feb highs) are resistance along the way. R:R from the worst fill (0.0366): 0.0074 / 0.0019 = 3.9.