Operação simulada T006: XDC Network (XDC), long

Por que à vista (1x): Spot (1x) by rule: XDC ideas are spot only; a weeks-to-months position hold, not leveraged.

SPOT POSITION idea (1x, long only; a long-term spot holding idea, and the main perp venues used here (Bitunix, Binance, OKX, Kraken Futures, Coinbase) list no XDC perpetual). Kraken candles: today's +11% move broke the Oct 15-20 lower highs (0.0352 to 0.0329) and is testing the 0.0355-0.0360 ceiling (Oct 9/10/12 highs 0.03587/0.03574/0.03569, today 0.03597), but it has not closed a 4H or daily candle above 0.0360. Volume is higher (Kraken ~1.6x its 10-day average, CoinGecko all-exchange ~$25.6M vs ~$8-18M/day) on the SBI/Shinhan yen-stablecoin MOU and this week's MoneyGram validator news. Price is stretched (4H above the upper Bollinger band, 1h RSI 80), so this is a pending buy on a retest of 0.0347-0.0352: the broken lower-high line (Oct 15 high 0.0352, Oct 16 0.0347) and today's 1-3 PM CT base (1h lows 0.0347-0.0350). Stop 0.0330 sits under today's 7 AM CT 4H low (0.0339) and the Oct 13 low (0.03318), near the daily EMA20 (0.0334). A close there means the breakout failed and the October floor (0.0318-0.0321) is in play. T1 0.0383 is under the Sep 29 high (0.0384, the 90-day high); T2 0.0440 is under the Jan 22-23 highs. R:R from the worst fill (0.0352): 1.4 to T1, 4.0 to T2, about 2.7 blended (equal halves; the stop moves to breakeven after T1). P&L is at 1x: T1 +8.8%, T2 +25%, stop -6.3% from 0.0352. The news is mostly MOUs and pilots with no disclosed numbers, so the idea rests on the levels, not on the headlines.

Plano "perdeu a entrada?"

Above 0.0356 price is up against the 0.0355-0.0360 ceiling with 1h/4h RSI stretched, and buying there leaves about 7% to T1 against a stop under 0.0330. Don't chase: wait for the 0.0347-0.0352 retest, or for the confirmed breakout plan below. (limite do "perdeu a entrada?" 0.0356)

Plano B (rompimento de alta): 1h close above 0.0365 (clears the 0.0355-0.0360 ceiling and the Sep 28 high 0.03643). Zona 0.0362–0.0366, stop 0.0347, alvo 0.044. Status: anulado.

If XDC accepts above the October ceiling (0.0355-0.0360) and the Sep 28 high (0.03643), the old ceiling should act as support. Buy 0.0362-0.0366 after a 1h close above 0.0365, with the stop at 0.0347, back inside the old range and under the 0.0347-0.0352 shelf. The target is 0.0440, under the Jan 22-23 highs (0.0443-0.0444); 0.0384 (Sep 29 high) and 0.0395-0.0400 (Jan/Feb highs) are resistance along the way. R:R from the worst fill (0.0366): 0.0074 / 0.0019 = 3.9.