ペーパートレード T009：Bitcoin (BTC) ロング

2xの理由： Range floor with steady ETF buying (+$524.8M Oct 21, Farside), but 1h/4h Sell, risk-off macro, a yen rally and the Oct 28 Fed / Oct 29-30 BOJ inside the window; stop 1.9% from worst fill -> 3.7% of margin at 2x

SWING LONG (range-floor buy). BTC's push to ~$85K reversed and it fell to ~$81.1K as an AI-stock selloff and oil near five-month highs hit risk assets (Investing.com, CoinDesk); the earlier T007 long was stopped at 80,800. The bid moves lower to 79,900-80,400, the Oct 15-18 lows (30-day low ~80,100) that also line up with the daily EMA50 (~80,800) zone and the ~$80K ETF/treasury cost basis Glassnode flagged. Spot ETFs are still buying (+$524.8M on Oct 21, Farside; +$1.07B over three sessions). Stop 78,900 is under the 30-day low; T1 82,500 is the broken support, T2 84,500 the Oct 21-22 high area. From the 80,400 worst fill: risk 1.9% vs 2.6% to T1 (1.4R) and 5.1% to T2 (2.7R). Low conviction: long liquidations dominate (97% longs in 24h, TRdesk), USD/JPY slipped to ~157 and the Fed/BOJ meetings fall inside the window.

「乗り遅れたら？」プラン

Above 80,800 the risk to the 78,900 stop gets too wide for the reward to 82,500, so don't chase a bounce. Skip the idea if BTC has a 4h close under 79,500 before filling (the range floor is breaking).（「乗り遅れたら？」上限 80,800）

プランB（押し目）： Retest of 82,300-82,600 holds: a 1h candle trades into it and closes at or above 82,300 (BTC reclaims the 82.5K line it lost today). ゾーン 82,300–82,600、損切り 81,400、ターゲット 84,700。 ステータス：監視中.

If BTC never dips to 80K and instead reclaims 82.5K (the support it lost today, near the 1h EMA50 ~82.6K), a held retest of 82,300-82,600 is the move. Stop 81,400 sits under today's breakdown area; T 84,700 is just under the Oct 21-22 high (~84,800). R:R from the worst fill 82,600: 2,100 / 1,200 = 1.75.