Paper trade T009: Bitcoin (BTC) long

Why 2x: Range floor with steady ETF buying (+$524.8M Oct 21, Farside), but 1h/4h Sell, risk-off macro, a yen rally and the Oct 28 Fed / Oct 29-30 BOJ inside the window; stop 1.9% from worst fill -> 3.7% of margin at 2x

SWING LONG (range-floor buy). BTC's push to ~$85K reversed and it fell to ~$81.1K as an AI-stock selloff and oil near five-month highs hit risk assets (Investing.com, CoinDesk); the earlier T007 long was stopped at 80,800. The bid moves lower to 79,900-80,400, the Oct 15-18 lows (30-day low ~80,100) that also line up with the daily EMA50 (~80,800) zone and the ~$80K ETF/treasury cost basis Glassnode flagged. Spot ETFs are still buying (+$524.8M on Oct 21, Farside; +$1.07B over three sessions). Stop 78,900 is under the 30-day low; T1 82,500 is the broken support, T2 84,500 the Oct 21-22 high area. From the 80,400 worst fill: risk 1.9% vs 2.6% to T1 (1.4R) and 5.1% to T2 (2.7R). Low conviction: long liquidations dominate (97% longs in 24h, TRdesk), USD/JPY slipped to ~157 and the Fed/BOJ meetings fall inside the window.

“Missed it?” plan

Above 80,800 the risk to the 78,900 stop gets too wide for the reward to 82,500, so don't chase a bounce. Skip the idea if BTC has a 4h close under 79,500 before filling (the range floor is breaking). (missed-it limit 80,800)

Plan B (pullback): Retest of 82,300-82,600 holds: a 1h candle trades into it and closes at or above 82,300 (BTC reclaims the 82.5K line it lost today). Zone 82,300–82,600, stop 81,400, target 84,700. Status: watching.

If BTC never dips to 80K and instead reclaims 82.5K (the support it lost today, near the 1h EMA50 ~82.6K), a held retest of 82,300-82,600 is the move. Stop 81,400 sits under today's breakdown area; T 84,700 is just under the Oct 21-22 high (~84,800). R:R from the worst fill 82,600: 2,100 / 1,200 = 1.75.