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ペーパートレード T011：XRP ショート
2026年10月23日 6:25 CDT公開
チャートで見るセットアップ
エントリーゾーン 1.355–1.37損切り 1.392T1 1.30T2 1.265点線：公開 / 終了 · 10月21日 19時 – 10月23日 12時 CT
損切りまでのリスク 2.73%（3xで証拠金の8.2%）T1までのリワード 4.06%（3xで12.2%）
経緯
- 2026年10月23日 6:25 CDT アイデア公開 · ショート · 3x; エントリーゾーン 1.355–1.37
- 2026年10月26日 12:00 CDT 約定しなければ期限切れ
- 2026年10月28日 12:00 CDT 時間切れ決済 · 保有中なら成行で決済
Lumiの根拠
詳しく：このアイデアの理由、レバレッジと「乗り遅れたら？」プラン
3xの理由： 1d Strong Sell under the 20/50/200-day EMA cluster (1.361-1.374) and 4h Sell, with the zone at that cluster; constructive Ripple news (Arf, CryptEscrow) and a flat BTC keep it at medium; stop 2.7% from the worst fill (1.355) -> ~8% of margin at 3x
SWING SHORT (sell the rally into resistance). XRP (~1.32) is pinned between the 1.30 horizontal floor and a heavy resistance band: the 20-, 50- and 200-day EMAs sit together at 1.361 / 1.370 / 1.374, just under the Oct 21-22 high (~1.389). The 1d read is Strong Sell (price < EMA20 < EMA50, below EMA200) and the 4h is Sell under its EMAs (~1.325-1.331). The 1.355-1.37 zone sells a relief rally into that EMA cluster; the stop at 1.392 is above the Oct 21-22 high and the 200-day EMA, so a move there means the downtrend is being reclaimed. T1 1.30 is the floor; T2 1.265 sits just above the Oct low (1.259). From the worst fill (1.355): risk 2.7% vs 4.1% to T1 (1.5R) and 6.6% to T2 (2.4R). Ripple's news flow is constructive (Arf RLUSD settlement financing on XRPL, CryptEscrow real-estate settlement, small XRP ETF inflows), but none of it changes XRP demand in the near term, and BTC ETFs just had their biggest outflow day since June, so the idea leans on the levels.
「乗り遅れたら？」プラン
Only short into 1.355-1.37. Below 1.348 the reward to the 1.30 floor no longer covers the risk to the 1.392 stop, so don't chase it lower. Skip the idea if XRP gets a 4h close above 1.392 (above the Oct 21-22 high area and the 200-day EMA) before filling.（「乗り遅れたら？」上限 1.348）
no good chase; wait for a new setup: XRP sits ~1.5% above the 1.30 floor, so a short from 1.32 has its stop above 1.34-1.39 (1.5-5% away) with only ~1.5% of room to 1.30 and ~4% to the 1.259 Oct low: R:R under 1.5 unless the rally comes first.