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모의 매매 T011: XRP 숏
2026년 10월 23일 6:25 CDT 게시
차트로 보는 셋업
진입 구간 1.355–1.37손절 1.392T1 1.30T2 1.265점선: 게시 / 종료 · 10월 21일 19시 – 10월 23일 12시 CT
손절까지 위험 2.73% (3x 기준 증거금의 8.2%)T1까지 수익 4.06% (3x 기준 12.2%)
무슨 일이 있었나
- 2026년 10월 23일 6:25 CDT 아이디어 게시 · 숏 · 3x; 진입 구간 1.355–1.37
- 2026년 10월 26일 12:00 CDT 미체결 시 만료
- 2026년 10월 28일 12:00 CDT 시간 손절 · 아직 진행 중이면 시장가로 청산
Lumi의 근거
더 보기: 이 아이디어의 이유, 레버리지 및 "놓쳤다면?" 플랜
3x인 이유: 1d Strong Sell under the 20/50/200-day EMA cluster (1.361-1.374) and 4h Sell, with the zone at that cluster; constructive Ripple news (Arf, CryptEscrow) and a flat BTC keep it at medium; stop 2.7% from the worst fill (1.355) -> ~8% of margin at 3x
SWING SHORT (sell the rally into resistance). XRP (~1.32) is pinned between the 1.30 horizontal floor and a heavy resistance band: the 20-, 50- and 200-day EMAs sit together at 1.361 / 1.370 / 1.374, just under the Oct 21-22 high (~1.389). The 1d read is Strong Sell (price < EMA20 < EMA50, below EMA200) and the 4h is Sell under its EMAs (~1.325-1.331). The 1.355-1.37 zone sells a relief rally into that EMA cluster; the stop at 1.392 is above the Oct 21-22 high and the 200-day EMA, so a move there means the downtrend is being reclaimed. T1 1.30 is the floor; T2 1.265 sits just above the Oct low (1.259). From the worst fill (1.355): risk 2.7% vs 4.1% to T1 (1.5R) and 6.6% to T2 (2.4R). Ripple's news flow is constructive (Arf RLUSD settlement financing on XRPL, CryptEscrow real-estate settlement, small XRP ETF inflows), but none of it changes XRP demand in the near term, and BTC ETFs just had their biggest outflow day since June, so the idea leans on the levels.
"놓쳤다면?" 플랜
Only short into 1.355-1.37. Below 1.348 the reward to the 1.30 floor no longer covers the risk to the 1.392 stop, so don't chase it lower. Skip the idea if XRP gets a 4h close above 1.392 (above the Oct 21-22 high area and the 200-day EMA) before filling. ("놓쳤다면?" 한도 1.348)
no good chase; wait for a new setup: XRP sits ~1.5% above the 1.30 floor, so a short from 1.32 has its stop above 1.34-1.39 (1.5-5% away) with only ~1.5% of room to 1.30 and ~4% to the 1.259 Oct low: R:R under 1.5 unless the rally comes first.