모의 매매 T012: XDC Network (XDC) 롱

현물 (1x)인 이유: Spot (1x) by rule: XDC ideas are spot only. Low conviction: the daily is still Buy above its EMA200, but the 1h/4h are Sell after the 0.033 break and BTC is soft with the Fed/BOJ next week; stop 5.9% from the worst fill (0.0324)

SWING SPOT LONG (buy the base retest). XDC slipped from the 0.0354 Friday high to ~0.0330 (Kraken 4h low 0.03299), so the Oct 21 breakout has failed for now. The daily trend is still the best on the watchlist: 1d Buy, above the EMA200 (~0.0326) and EMA50 (~0.0320), sitting on the EMA20 (~0.0334). The bid moves lower to 0.0319-0.0324, the Oct 20-21 base (4h lows 0.03178-0.03226) where the daily EMA50 and EMA200 sit. Stop 0.0305 is under the Oct 8 low (0.03079); a daily close there would break the September-October uptrend. T1 0.0354 is the Oct 22-23 high area; T2 0.0383 sits under the Sep 29 high (0.0384). From the worst fill (0.0324): risk 5.9% vs 9.3% to T1 (1.6R) and 18.2% to T2 (3.1R). Adoption news is steady (MoneyGram, Taurus and Amber as validators; SBI/Shinhan yen-stablecoin MOU), but it is MOUs and pilots without disclosed volumes, so the idea rests on the levels.

"놓쳤다면?" 플랜

Only buy 0.0319-0.0324. Above 0.0328 the stop under 0.0305 is more than 7% away for ~8% to T1, so don't chase the bounce; use the breakout plan instead. Skip the idea if XDC gets a daily close under 0.0310 before filling (the Oct 20 base has failed). ("놓쳤다면?" 한도 0.0328)

플랜 B (상방 돌파): 1h close above 0.0361 (clears the Oct 21-23 highs at 0.03544-0.03597). 구간 0.0358–0.0362, 손절 0.0343, 목표가 0.0395. 상태: 무효화됨.

If XDC never dips to the base and instead clears the 0.0354-0.0360 ceiling that capped Oct 9-12 and Oct 21-23, the old ceiling should turn into support. Buy 0.0358-0.0362 after a 1h close above 0.0361, stop 0.0343 back under the Oct 23 4h lows (0.0345-0.0346), target 0.0395 just under the Jan/Feb highs (0.0395-0.0400), with the Sep 29 high (0.0384) on the way. R:R from the worst fill (0.0362): 0.0033 / 0.0019 = 1.7.