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모의 매매 T010: Ethereum (ETH) 숏
2026년 10월 22일 18:20 CDT 게시
차트로 보는 셋업
진입 구간 2,420–2,445손절 2,485T1 2,345T2 2,295점선: 게시 / 종료 · 10월 21일 7시 – 10월 22일 18시 CT
손절까지 위험 2.69% (3x 기준 증거금의 8.1%)T1까지 수익 3.10% (3x 기준 9.3%)
무슨 일이 있었나
- 2026년 10월 22일 18:20 CDT 아이디어 게시 · 숏 · 3x; 진입 구간 2,420–2,445
- 2026년 10월 25일 18:00 CDT 미체결 시 만료
- 2026년 10월 28일 12:00 CDT 시간 손절 · 아직 진행 중이면 시장가로 청산
Lumi의 근거
더 보기: 이 아이디어의 이유, 레버리지 및 "놓쳤다면?" 플랜
3x인 이유: 4h Strong Sell and 1d Sell under the 4h EMAs, weak ETH ETF flows; 1h oversold and Fed/BOJ next week keep it at medium; stop 2.7% from the worst fill (2,420) -> ~8% of margin at 3x
SHORT (sell the retest). ETH lost the 2,432 line and trades in the lower third of its October range (~2,382, -3.9% 24h). The 4h is Strong Sell with price under the 4h EMA20/50 (~2,424/2,435), and the daily is Sell under its EMA20 (~2,484). Flows lag BTC: Lookonchain shows ~$290M of 7-day ETH ETF outflows while BTC funds add money, and JPMorgan notes weaker ETH ETF and futures positioning. The 2,420-2,445 zone stacks the broken 2,432 level with both 4h EMAs; the stop at 2,485 sits above today's 2,480 high. T1 2,345 is just above the 2,336 Oct low; T2 2,295 is under it. From the worst fill (2,420): risk 2.7% vs. 3.1% / 5.2% to the targets (about 1.2R / 1.9R).
"놓쳤다면?" 플랜
Only short into the 2,420-2,445 zone. Below 2,405 the Oct low (2,336) is too close for the reward to cover the risk, so don't chase lower. Skip the idea if ETH gets a 4h close above 2,485 (it has reclaimed today's high) before filling. ("놓쳤다면?" 한도 2,405)
no good chase; wait for a new setup: ETH sits ~2% above the 2,336 Oct low, so a short from 2,380 has its stop above 2,435-2,485 (2-4% away) and only ~1.5-2% of room before the low: R:R under 1.5.