Lumi TradesLumi Trades › Trade ideas › T010
Paper trade T010: Ethereum (ETH) short
Posted Oct 22, 2026, 6:20 PM CDT
The setup on the chart
Entry zone 2,420–2,445Stop 2,485T1 2,345T2 2,295Dotted lines: posted / closed · Oct 21, 7 AM – Oct 22, 6 PM CT
Risk to stop 2.69% (8.1% of margin at 3x)Reward to T1 3.10% (9.3% at 3x)
What happened
- Oct 22, 2026, 6:20 PM CDT Idea posted · Short · 3x; entry zone 2,420–2,445
- Oct 25, 2026, 6:00 PM CDT Expires if not filled
- Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM CDT Time stop · closes at market if still open
Lumi's reasoning
Read more: why this idea, the leverage and the “missed it?” plan
Why 3x: 4h Strong Sell and 1d Sell under the 4h EMAs, weak ETH ETF flows; 1h oversold and Fed/BOJ next week keep it at medium; stop 2.7% from the worst fill (2,420) -> ~8% of margin at 3x
SHORT (sell the retest). ETH lost the 2,432 line and trades in the lower third of its October range (~2,382, -3.9% 24h). The 4h is Strong Sell with price under the 4h EMA20/50 (~2,424/2,435), and the daily is Sell under its EMA20 (~2,484). Flows lag BTC: Lookonchain shows ~$290M of 7-day ETH ETF outflows while BTC funds add money, and JPMorgan notes weaker ETH ETF and futures positioning. The 2,420-2,445 zone stacks the broken 2,432 level with both 4h EMAs; the stop at 2,485 sits above today's 2,480 high. T1 2,345 is just above the 2,336 Oct low; T2 2,295 is under it. From the worst fill (2,420): risk 2.7% vs. 3.1% / 5.2% to the targets (about 1.2R / 1.9R).
“Missed it?” plan
Only short into the 2,420-2,445 zone. Below 2,405 the Oct low (2,336) is too close for the reward to cover the risk, so don't chase lower. Skip the idea if ETH gets a 4h close above 2,485 (it has reclaimed today's high) before filling. (missed-it limit 2,405)
no good chase; wait for a new setup: ETH sits ~2% above the 2,336 Oct low, so a short from 2,380 has its stop above 2,435-2,485 (2-4% away) and only ~1.5-2% of room before the low: R:R under 1.5.