Operação simulada T010: Ethereum (ETH), short

Por que 3x: 4h Strong Sell and 1d Sell under the 4h EMAs, weak ETH ETF flows; 1h oversold and Fed/BOJ next week keep it at medium; stop 2.7% from the worst fill (2,420) -> ~8% of margin at 3x

SHORT (sell the retest). ETH lost the 2,432 line and trades in the lower third of its October range (~2,382, -3.9% 24h). The 4h is Strong Sell with price under the 4h EMA20/50 (~2,424/2,435), and the daily is Sell under its EMA20 (~2,484). Flows lag BTC: Lookonchain shows ~$290M of 7-day ETH ETF outflows while BTC funds add money, and JPMorgan notes weaker ETH ETF and futures positioning. The 2,420-2,445 zone stacks the broken 2,432 level with both 4h EMAs; the stop at 2,485 sits above today's 2,480 high. T1 2,345 is just above the 2,336 Oct low; T2 2,295 is under it. From the worst fill (2,420): risk 2.7% vs. 3.1% / 5.2% to the targets (about 1.2R / 1.9R).

Plano "perdeu a entrada?"

Only short into the 2,420-2,445 zone. Below 2,405 the Oct low (2,336) is too close for the reward to cover the risk, so don't chase lower. Skip the idea if ETH gets a 4h close above 2,485 (it has reclaimed today's high) before filling. (limite do "perdeu a entrada?" 2,405)

no good chase; wait for a new setup: ETH sits ~2% above the 2,336 Oct low, so a short from 2,380 has its stop above 2,435-2,485 (2-4% away) and only ~1.5-2% of room before the low: R:R under 1.5.