모의 매매 T013: Zebec Network (ZBCN) 롱

2x인 이유: Low conviction (2x): the $0.00200 floor has held twice (Oct 18, Oct 24) and ZBCN has the best 30-day relative strength on the watchlist, but the 4h/1d signals are Sell, BTC is soft and the Fed (Oct 28) and BOJ (Oct 30) are this week. Stop 5.8% from the worst fill (0.00207), so about 11.6% of margin at 2x (cap 25/5.8 = 4.3x).

SWING LONG (buy the range floor). ZBCN has traded 0.00200-0.00235 since mid-October. Saturday's market-wide liquidation flush took it to 0.00201 on Kraken, matching the Oct 18 low (0.002001), and it closed the day back at ~0.00215: two holds of the same floor while most of the list made new 30-day lows. It is the only watchlist coin up over 30 days (+5.3%). The bid sits at 0.00203-0.00207, just above the double bottom. Stop 0.00195 is under the double bottom and the Sep 28 low (0.001985); a daily close there breaks the range. T1 0.00225 is the Oct 19-20 highs (0.002247-0.002249), just above the daily EMA20 (~0.00221); T2 0.0024 sits under the Oct 11 high (0.00241) and the Oct 21 spike (0.00248). From the worst fill (0.00207): risk 5.8% vs 8.7% to T1 (1.5R) and 15.9% to T2 (2.75R). Signals are not supportive (1h Neutral, 4h/1d Sell, RSI ~46-49), and it is a thin small cap that follows BTC, so conviction stays low. Product news (Q3 buyback of 40.5M ZBCN, Stellar payroll, Zebec Cards) is steady background, not the reason for the trade.

"놓쳤다면?" 플랜

Only buy 0.00203-0.00207. Above 0.00208 the stop under 0.00195 is more than 6% away for little more than that to T1, so don't chase; use the breakout plan instead. Skip the idea if ZBCN gets a daily close under 0.00200 before filling (the double bottom has failed). ("놓쳤다면?" 한도 0.00208)

플랜 B (상방 돌파): 1h close above 0.00235 (clears the Oct 22 high at 0.002346 and the top of the two-week range). 구간 0.00234–0.00237, 손절 0.00226, 목표가 0.00255. 상태: 무효화됨.

If ZBCN never dips to the floor and instead breaks out of the 0.00200-0.00235 range, the top of the range should turn into support. Buy 0.00234-0.00237 after a 1h close above 0.00235, stop 0.00226 back inside the range under the Oct 23 high (0.00231), target 0.00255 under the early-October lower highs (0.00258-0.00263) and the Oct 12 high (0.00261). R:R from the worst fill (0.00237): 0.00018 / 0.00011 = 1.6.